TIGblogs - UFJ

Jonathan Clayton in Johannesburg

Their families shared in the struggle against apartheid and both played a prominent role in ending white minority rule in South Africa. But Thabo Mbeki, the country’s President, and Jacob Zuma, his main challenger, come from very different worlds.

The two men, both 65 and once comrades in arms, are engaged in a bitter power struggle that threatens to destroy the movement that enfranchised black South Africans and drag the country deeper into turmoil.

Mr Mbeki — bookish, with a taste for pipes, Yeats and Wordsworth — has spent the past few days ensconced in the presidential study, drafting the speech that he hopes will persuade the African National Congress (ANC) to give him a third term as party leader.

In contrast Mr Zuma, a firebrand populist given to wearing tribal dress, was doing what he does best: greeting euphoric supporters at “victory” rallies up and down the country, confident that he will unseat his great rival.

If Mr Zuma is elected as ANC president during the party’s congress, which begins tomorrow, he is almost certain to be the party’s candidate in the 2009 presidential election; a poll that the ANC is assured of winning, given its total grip on power in the country 13 years after the end of apartheid.

Mr Mbeki, whose parents were teachers and activists, is constitutionally barred from standing for a third term as President of South Africa. But he is desperate to retain control of the ANC so that he can influence the choice of his successor as the leader of the country. It is unthinkable that he would anoint Mr Zuma, whom he dismissed as ANC deputy president in 2005 after he was linked to a multibillion-pound arms scandal.

Corruption charges against Mr Zuma, the son of a domestic maid, collapsed last year on a technicality. He also beat a separate rape charge last May, which many of his supporters believe was orchestrated by pro-Mbeki supporters in an attempt to consign him to political obscurity.

At first, it seemed to have worked.Public opinion was outraged by Mr Zuma’s admission that he had unprotected sex with the 32-year-old daughter of a family friend who was HIV positive and called him “uncle”.

He later said that he took a shower to reduce the chances of infection; a statement that appalled activists in a country where 900 people a day die of Aids.

Mr Zuma fought back, capitalising on Mr Mbeki’s unpopularity, particularly among the township poor, who have seen little benefit from business-friendly, pro-market economic policies that have led to an unparalleled period of economic growth.

The President’s “denialist” stand on Aids, his refusal to criticise events in neighbouring Zimbabwe, and failure to rein in — or even admit to — one of the world’s worst crime rates, and his frequent trips abroad to further his vision of an “African renaissance” all played into his rival’s hands.

In regional conferences to decide on nominations for the five-yearly National Conference, Mr Mbeki received only 1,400 votes and the backing of four out of nine provinces.

Mr Zuma took 2,232 votes and five provinces. He has also won the endorsement of the left-wing Youth League and, in an amazing setback for Mr Mbeki, who has consistently trumpeted gender rights, the ANC Women’s League. Mr Zuma’s astonishing comeback has come at a huge price. The mighty ANC, which defeated minority white rule through unity and tight organisation, now faces the worst split in its 95-year history, presenting the country with the biggest political crisis since the end of apartheid in 1994.

In a rare comment on the situation yesterday Mr Mbeki, who took office when Nelson Mandela stepped down, said that the bitter contest could destroy the party. “If division leads to retribution, that’s what will destroy the ANC . . . Part of our responsibility is to avoid such an outcome,” Mr Mbeki said in an interview with the weekly Mail and Guardian. “We must take this thing away from personalities. The masses of our people are not interested in who dances best,” he added.

Once again, however, Mr Mbeki, who has clearly been taken aback by the strength of the opposition to him, appears to have got it wrong. Responding to criticism that he has stifled debate, he said: “Do I look as if I’ve got horns? It’s said that I block debate and inhibit open discussion — that’s puzzling to me. It’s completely untrue.”

The tussle between the two men, which will be settled by a vote of 5,000 delegates on Monday, has been devoid of virtually any policy discussion, though Mr Zuma has promised to make Aids and crime national priorities.

He has also, recently, assiduously courted big business in an effort to lose his “champion of the poor” image and allay fears that he would drop free-market policies.

Political analysts suggest that white property and businesses would not be at risk, but say that a Zuma presidency would represent a major break with the past and the country could look much more like other African nations, with a “big man” ruler.

Buchizya Mseteka, an expert on southern Africa, said: “The country is at a turning point. A Zuma presidency would be very different in style and substance. He owes many people favours and so patronage, already important, would be even more critical.”

Others concur, saying that the days of “a little bit of Europe in Africa” would be numbered. “Culturally the country could be more confident and assertive,” one Zuma backer said. “It could look like a successful version of Nigeria.”

Ill at ease in a crowd and uncomfortable at traditional African ceremonies, Mr Mbeki’s rise to power came as a result of astute backroom politicking and his closeness to senior ANC figures. He joined the party at the age of 14, but spent most of his life in exile on ANC instructions. Even his marriage, in 1974, had to be approved by the party leadership. In contrast, Mr Zuma, a Zulu, moves easily from left-wing township militancy to traditional village ceremonies, where he dons leopardskin loincloths. He has fathered 17 children from four official wives, but turns such issues to his advantage. “Other political leaders hide the fact they have mistresses . . . I am an African man and proud of my culture,” he told The Times in a recent interview. “I admit my faults and don’t deny that I am human. Others lie.”

ANC officials are so concerned about a public humiliation of Mr Mbeki that they have banned all T-shirts emblazoned with slogans supporting one candidate or the other from the conference centre in the sleepy northern town of Polokwane, Limpopo Province. They know that few people will be wearing pro-Mbeki ones, whereas those bearing the legends “100 per cent Zuma” and “Zulu Boy” have been selling in their thousands for weeks.

Despite frantic last-minute horse trading and accusations of money changing hands and offers of jobs and promotions, ANC insiders rule out any chance of Mr Mbeki swinging votes back in his favour at the conference. “The best he could hope for now is a postponement, but he has played his cards badly and even that is an outside chance,” one official commented.

Prosecutors have indicated that they could still charge Mr Zuma again, but have so far failed to bring a case they are confident would result in a conviction. If he takes the ANC presidency it is doubtful whether any prosecutor would dare to bring charges.

“Jacob Zuma will have an unofficial presidential immunity — it would take a very brave man to charge the ANC president. I can’t see it happening,” said Allister Sparks, the veteran journalist and author. Most ANC members believe that Mr Zuma was a victim of a plot by Mbeki supporters. They argue that Mr Zuma, who spent ten years on Robben Island and then became the head of the ANC’s military wing, was badly treated. He is also credited with ending a vicious civil war in the 1990s between ANC and the Zulu-dominated Inkatha Freedom Party in KwaZulu-Natal.

Other figures involved in the arms scandal received much more than the £35,000 that Mr Zuma was accused of pocketing. They have not been pursued, leading to allegations that the President was misusing state funds to settle a political vendetta.

“Zuma is an African traditionalist. He can’t possibly deliver to all the constituencies who have supported him if he becomes President, but at the moment people don’t care, they just have had it with Mbeki and his perceived aloofness,” Mr Sparks said.

In Soweto yesterday there was little sympathy for the President. “We JWs are left to foot it while the bigwigs drive around in fast cars,” said Philemon, an unemployed builder, as he pointed at the BMWs and Mercedes of the new black elite — dubbed Black Diamonds — who have made fortunes in the booming economy. About 40 per cent of the country’s population remains jobless and have seen little improvement in living standards since the arrival of majority rule.

THE CANDIDATES

Thabo Mbeki age 65

Style Western-friendly proponent of an intellectual "African Renaissance"

Childhood His parents were teachers and ANC intellectuals, as close to a middle class upbringing as was possible at the time

Family One son by a teenage relationship, who was killed while trying to escape South Africa. Married his wife Zanele in 1974

The apartheid years Joined the ANC aged 14, but fled after arrests of Walter Sisulu and Nelson Mandela. He earned a masters degree in Britain at the University of Sussex, went to train in guerrilla tactics in Moscow, then moved to the ANC headquarters in exile in Zambia

Jacob Zuma age 65

Style African "Big Man", comfortable in tribal dress

Childhood Born into poverty, his father died in his infancy. Received no formal education

Family Four official wives and 17 children. “Other political leaders hide the fact they have mistresses . . . I am an African man and proud of my culture,” he said

The apartheid years Arrested on charges of conspiring to overthrow the government, Zuma was incarcerated in Robben Island prison for ten years. On his release he helped to set up the ANC underground resistance, before moving into exile between 1975 and 1990

Source: ANC